NCM 0.00% $23.35 newcrest mining limited

In the Buy Zone, page-31

  1. 1,739 Posts.
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    Not to state the bleeding obvious, but a good gold mining portfolio will already include PRU, SLR and the like.

    That said, believe me as a holder of them and others, all gold miners have taken a serious hit to their share price. There has been no where to hide.

    I am finding this cyclical bear market in gold to offer a smorgasboard of opportunities to add to both large and small miners.

    lMO, prices could languish for another 3 to 6 months. That's just the way of the market. Everyone will be peeved off and prices could go lower, much lower. THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY.

    The cash flows and balance sheets to gold producers has RARELY been better than today. After the 2011 to 2018 secular bear, many smaller miners folded,bigger ones simply repaired their excesses from the 2003 to 2011 massive bull run.

    l am loving the reports of most producers that simply have positive cash flows quarter after quarter whilst their share prices fall on some inane fear that the POG is not going up. It doesn't need to as they are already profitable!

    l am of the view a Newmont or Barrick will use the strong US$ to buy one of our big boys. I also believe one of our big boys will buy out some juniors. This is simply buying future growth at a cheap price with the cash that the best companies are throwing off. It is a mid cycle cyclical certainty.

    I don't need this to happen, nor do l invest for it to happen, but what l think or do will not stop it from happening. After well over 40 years of this stuff, there are not a lot of surprise movements left to see, only timing surprises.

    I dont care much of the POG for my equity positions. I do care about it for my physical gold holdings of which l hold A LOT and have been accumulating with avarice below US$1,720 although weak Aussie hasn't helped the cause.

    My physical is my insurance money, it helps me to sleep at night just in case Vlad, Xi or sleepy Joe do something stupid.

    My equity positions are more like chess pieces in the fun game l now finding myself playing against beginners who are good with clicking "enter" on their keyboards but lacking tactical skills and experience.

    Don't worry, l was one of them too, a long time ago and was cleaned up by the smart money guys of the day. The difference was l paid a couple of stock
    brokers who were good at resources to teach me year after year and stop me from being too stupid.

    With no teachers left, there is just a constant flow of new punters, including institutional grads, who simply don't know too much about investing.

    Everyone "knows" "buy low sell high" yet very few do it. That has become somewhat my only investment goal. But even that isn't perfect. Imagine buying SLR (for example at 12c in Jan 2015 or was it 2016?) and selling at $2 and then it kept on going to $3. Oops. You've got to be prepared to get the exit point wrong and live with it.

    The real question l console myself with when buying low and selling high is what did l do with the sale proceeds? If l bought something else "low" and it performed as expected, there was nothing lost in a very low risk high return game plan.

    Here endeth the lesson. Sorry to sound like an old fool. My apologies to other old timers who have probably done it better than me, but young'uns.....be patient and read the market cycles not the daily share prices.

    GLTASH

    PS Have bought back into SLR below $1.50 this is not advice.

    Last edited by Jack1960: PS note 23/07/22
 
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