Thanks for the share Scooby. Those are very good details. I did...

Thanks for the share Scooby. Those are very good details. I did abit of digging as well to get a feel of the issue and flow on impacts.

Below is IMO only, DYOR.

If the issue is with the VR14-1, the bad news is the UG mine will have to be shut until this is addressed. See below link to the detailed document for the location and function of the VR14. In short there is a 6m diameter (vent) hole connecting to the surface that is blocked. If the material in this hole all falls to the bottom it can create a rush of air that can be catastrophic to people and machines (can kill people).
https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=MP06_0295%2120191124T233953.560%20GMT

Good news is it is not related to the orebody (and caving performance). The draw bell is not affected, unless the investigation discover more geotechnical issues which are not known at this stage. The road shut down is probably as it is said a precautionary measure.

The investigation will have two outcomes, the issue is either fixed and the vent functions again. This is going to be difficult and may be time consuming. Otherwise a second outcome is to abandon this vent rise and create a new vent rise to take over the functions. This again will be difficult and time consuming, in addition the VR14 vent will need to be neutralised for future dangers. Either way this issue is not a quick fix, may take months to implement. Cadia operations does have LG stockpiles to keep the plant running (30mt @ 0.3g/t gold or something), but there is a good chance the Cadia production guidance will be missed and also the AISC. To summarise Cadia operations probably won't be making much money this financial year. I am guessing the company is waiting for more information and clarity on the situation before releasing any change in guidance and information.

Can read this document as well for more details on Cadia UG. It is very technical heavy though.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-10/Technical%20Report%20on%20Cadia%20Operations%20as%20of%2030%20June%202020_0.pdf

My personal take away is the share price can go lower in the short term on expectation of new (lowered) FY23 guidance. But long term the issue can be fixed and the mining plan will resume. Really calculates to is the dip in share price more or less the cost of this time based issue resolving itself.