Hi all just been reading the various debates on who thinks what...

Hi all just been reading the various debates on who thinks what the company is worth if an offer is made and who would accept what offer and thought I'd have a look at the possible scenarios.

ASX - http://www.takeovers.gov.au/content...mmary_of_takeover_provisions_in_australia.htm - says
Compulsory acquisition

A bidder under a takeover bid11 may compulsorily acquire any remaining securities in the bid class if during, or at the end of, the offer period, the bidder and their associates have:

• relevant interests in at least 90% (by number) of the securities in the bid class and
• acquired at least 75% (by number) of the securities that the bidder offered to acquire under the bid.

As I interpret it, unless you have 90% of the shares in the company you cannot be compulsorily acquired.
We know FARJOY has over 10% meaning NOBODY ELSE has "at least 90% (by number)".
Therefore any offer will have to satisfy FARJOY

In the event of a 'friendly' offer again I really doubt it will matter one iota what you or I would sell at. We have minimal* say in it - Sad but true.

From what I have seen previously, in the event that a 'friendly' offer is formally made the board would consider it and, if thought fit, discuss it with FARJOY (and perhaps some of the other large holders).

If FARJOY also feels that the offer is acceptable the board would put it to shareholders recommending, in the absence of a better offer, that they accept the offer.

That is when we would yell and scream that its too low* (regardless of what it is) and hope for a bidding war to break out.

The share price would gap up to sit just below the offer price or possibly more if the market senses another bidder is to enter the frey.

However with the board and FARJOY supporting an offer it would be a fait acompli I am afraid with the only hope for a higher price than originally offered.

Therefore as far as I can tell it's almost entirely up to what FARJOY values the assets at and from what I can tell by his musings that is likely to be a rather attractive number given he stumped up at 15c very early days. He seems to know the oil business.

* I was in Cellestis when the directors sold (us) out. Shareholders had formed a strong posse and were tracking the company's every move for years through development until its first few dividend payments. The sky was the limit it was felt so a sudden offer and recommendation to accept it was devastating news. A group of shareholders representing over 25% was able to illicit a significant raise in the offer ($3.20 to $3.80 or thereabouts) despite only being a single bidder and only ever looking like one. Still feel we were raped there too. IN that case the board held significant percentage of the company.