in the news, page-7

Hi legendary, if we all know where IO prices will be in the next 12 months, 24 month, 36 months time, Arrium would not have got cap in hand (subscription disastrously falling way short) to the market with a raising that has more than doubled the size of the register.

The problem is not even how the IO cartel behaves but how much pain the Chinese decide to continue to produce domestic ore at a loss with heavy subsidies.

I think there is also a political dimension to it. Chinese state media has warned Australian over many months now (and more recently over Clive) that there will be a price to pay because of China's perception of Australia's role in Chinese encirclement and containment teaming up with the hated Japanese (now buying Japanese submarines certainty not to offer protection to Chinese ships). WA's state budget and the federal budget (in crisis) are under tremendous stress and the Chinese this time may prolong it.

Now, Australian thermal coal is in the cross hairs with what smells like more punishment. There is widely media reports of China domestic IO production going gangbusters which doesn't bode well.

It will cost China but it will be cost Australia far more dearly and companies like EQX could potentially be the collateral damage.

The non-big3 global IO industry (I am talking about producers and not resources yet to undergo pre-feasibility is in lock down in terms of future expansions and constructions

IMO, only the most compelling low-cost (invariably DSO), long-life, high-grade will have a chance of getting up in this environment and projects of substantial scale to provide strategic economic benefits.

IMO, If Exxarro (which needs to ship at least 12 MTA to make any commercial sense) has to suffer additional cost and inefficiencies in their project because of EQX's infrastructure demands for their 500KT and ultimate 2MTA puny output, it just could possibly be the straw that breaks the camels's back.

The problem IMO is in the timing and it isn't kind.

There is just way too much uncertainty at this moment. just an opinion.