inconclusive, page-35

Zakka,
I'll second your opinion and posts.
Petrorun's recent posts re possible 'tight' plover sands at >4-5km depth prompted me to do a lot of intensive research. I was hoping to prove him wrong actually! But what I found instead was the complexity of the science and engineering involved in gas and oil production was far, far, far more complex than I had assumed. I used to think it was simply a matter of poking a hole in the reservoir and out she (oil/gas) gushed. Not so. Instead, the factors determining whether or not gas & oil can even be extracted from a geological formation that is proven to contain hydrocarbons, are extremly complex. As a consequence my risk radar went up considerably with Poseiden given the vague information released to date.

So immediately after the infamous 'inconclusive' announcement today, I sold my entire KAR holding at just under $10. But not because I think KAR is a complete dud, but because I knew the risk was now greater than I was willing to take and that other similary high risk adverse folk were likely to do the same. It turned out to be a good move. Good to have acted in that first few moments after ann release.

I think the price will range trade quite strongly and stabilise somewhere between $7 - $8 tomorrow, but very hard to guess really. Wherever it falls short term, it will be on a knife edge of support until some concrete scientific data is announced about Poseiden. Until then I will sit on the sidelines and re-enter on a lower, but still medium term risk situation. ( I realise lower returns from lower risk.)


Anyway, overall I got out with a very healthy profit so can't whinge too much. Switched on the news tonight and saw the sad plight of people in Haiti after the earthquake. Puts things into context really. Here we are discussing a stock announcement - how lucky we really are! So a good chunk of my gain is destined for Haiti aid. I urge others who have done well out of KAR to contibute also.

cheers
Steve