hi guys... nice discussion with some very pertinent points being...

hi guys... nice discussion with some very pertinent points being made... I appreciate the knowledge and the frank exchange as it helps me to clarify my thoughts on COK...

I'm an old currency trader, and I just wanted to make a point about the strong AUD/USD... sure it seems strong above parity today compared to $0.8000 a few years ago, and although some offshore investors may be deterred thinking that the AUD is too strong, I would imagine more cunning offshore investors will be looking at the AUD wondering why it is so weak compared to USD, EUR & JPY... let me explain...

you guys mention supply & demand affecting coal prices and of course they do - but supply & demand affects currencies too - sure the "demand" to buy AUD assets & commodities may be low at the moment, but think about the other side of the equation - i.e. the "supply" of AUD - if we look at the AUD/USD, the true supply of AUD and USD are dictated by our governments & central bankers - you will have recently seen in the papers that the Aussie government debt has just recently gone over $250 billion - so just to match the supply of Aussie Govt bonds on a notional basis we must have a few more billion AUD's in circulation? Meanwhile, we all know the US Govt & the Fed have been busy with their own activities on the printing presses! On a notional basis alone, the supply of USD's is swamping the world which in turn is increasing the value and demand for less profligate currencies and for hard assets.

So to conclude, surely the cunning offshore investor should be licking his lips over Aussie assets which will be more expensive when (not if) the AUD/USD hits $1.2500, not to mention $1.5000!!