Your'e right - that does raise some very interesting questions
The DPS was US$4.3B versus an IE Mid of A$1.6B
Now the IE long term report has Fe price 130c/dmtu, DPS was only 105c/dmtu.
Using the IE sensitivities that -5% iron price reduces value by 440M than using the DPS price assumptions means the IE report would broadly be around ~0 value
Yet very very roughly
- IE and DPS opex costs look the same - Capex costs not too different - both IE and DPS have the free carry - using the DPS discount rate of 12.5% would bring the IE report back to $750M or so from 0. - The IE production has slipped a couple of years from DPS, speeding the IE valuation up by say two years might get the it back to say $1B.
So where did the value (US$4.3b V A$1b) go?
SDL Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held