Great to have our first research report out, thanks for posting
@Lawuki.
Now, I'll get straight to the point - it's rubbish. This could have been initiated 6-12 months ago when we were at 5c if they are just going to base their valuation on 1.5x EBITDA - which is ludicrous. The .57c share price assumes 545m shares on issue (and a CR at 50c) which gives us a valuation of
AUD$310m which is 1.5x EBITDA. I'll take the $310m market cap once Alcoa commits and we have an offtake
They have also used HPA price of USD$24,000/t, however these guys initiated coverage for ATC last year and used a LOM HPA price of USD$32,500/t - WTF? (see below). If they think ATC's base case of USD$26,900 is conservative, then what do they think of FYI's USD24,000/t is?
View attachment 2731753ATC coverage
View attachment 2731751These reports are still referencing peer production from 2014 - pleeeeeeease, how embarrassing!
View attachment 2731771When they initiated coverage for ATC last year, they used a global average EV/EBITDA of
x10 (see below)
View attachment 2731780FYI coverage they quoted EBITDA range of
5x to 8xView attachment 2731787Also, the .57c valuation includes an additional
$50m buffer for working capital which they did not include in their ATC valuation at all. Strange eh?
View attachment 2731790Anyway, great to have our first coverage, just cast your minds back a few months ago when we were at $12m market cap and our first research reports gives a $310m market cap target.
Lots to play out in the coming weeks and months which none has been mentioned in the report. Giddy up!
