Your discussing far more than has been announced to the market SP3, where did this 160M come from? Where did the $90/ton come from? again these are some fundamental 'numbers' that ESI has not and continues to avoid releasing.
This recent ann has done very little for market confidence, expect a sell off. Considering that ESI already has a 20M ton/20 yr sales agreement this ann has said nothing except ESI is not as close as they want the market to think, it will take ESI 3yrs to start production at some nominal undisclosed qty and won't be producing any significant qty for 6yrs.
The ann is very cleverly worded and appears to be working on some. Read the ann line by line and you should be left scratching your head.
Are they saying that due diligence has been complete?? No
Have they negotiated a service agreement? No
Have they secured any coal resources? No not at this time.
They have set realistic time frames..3yrs to first delivery, given the time they have already spent on design and process development and the positive comments made by ESI, then realistically there should be no more than 6months to finalise any scale up designs, 12months is more than adequate to build and commission a 'simple' processing plant. ASSUMING THAT THEY ARE NOT HAVING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS.
The variation agreement.."addresses the securing of resources"..should this read that there is a clause in the agreement that the event that ESI can not secure resources then the deals off. this statement is cleverly unclear, and could be interpreted both ways. Had resources been secured that I can guarantee that Con would state it very clearly.
As a stated before they have avoided the 'numbers', the other key point missing is what consideration is being made for the coldry pellets. Who cares how much they sell if theres no $$ in it.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a sell off as realistically who was expecting to have to wait another 6yrs.
I hold for the long term, but theres too much thats not being said.
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