India

If the Indian DoD contract materialises this FY and and next in the quantum that AVA have stated in earlier ASX releases, I think it is realistic to expect an NPAT figure in the region of $8m this FY and another $8m in FY21 (because the Indian contract is a licensing deal, there is zero cost of goods for AVA. Virtually 100% of Indian DoD licensing revenue goes straight to the bottom line). And by FY22, the other arms of the BQT, FFT and AVA logistics business should finally be running on all cylinders – e.g., the company has spoken of a huge 5 year BQT locking contract in the offing as well as multiple large FFT conveyer belt contracts – so the company's claim of "ongoing profitability" is not unrealistic, despite past disappointments with forecasting. With its current market cap of only $25m and no debt, if the market did come to think that a profit in the region of $8m was realistic (will likely take a couple of excellent 4Cs to show this), then I think a $100m+ market cap (= 300%+ gain) is not out of the question over the next 12 months.

Furthermore, once the logistics business is solidly profitable, it will likely be sold. Logistics alone (if profitable) could well be worth more than AVA's current market cap.

Yes, the company has dissapointed in the past and has yet to gain market trust, and India is India (i.e., recent delays might make some doubt whether the Indian DoD contract will materialize as stated by the company) – that's why its trading at 12c. But the company does seem to have genuine momentum on multiple fronts which I don't think it's had previously, and we also have a new CEO who will be keen to prove himself re sustained earnings. While I'm fully aware of this company's history, I nevertheless think that upside risk far outweighs downside risk at current levels.