some very rough back of the envelope numbers:GUJ have been a bit...

some very rough back of the envelope numbers:

GUJ have been a bit cagey with resources figs and production numbers but I have heard the 2-2.5 mtpa mentioned a few times now.

One way to value this is to look at its peers, and the closest I could find is GCL (though not directly comparable as it has a slightly different product mix)

GCL seems to have production of 2mtpa ramping up to 2.8mtpa, with measured and indicated resources of 90mtpa. Xstrata is bidding $4.75 a share which is a market cap of $380m.

With this acqusition GUJ are now looking at 2mtpa with expansion to 2.5mtpa. Not sure what resources are but a 35 year life would indicate 70mt.

So even if we say it is worth 60%-70% of GCL thats a market cap of $228m-$266m or about $1.14-$1.30 a share (200m issued shares?)

Stick another discount on it for the fact they have not ramped up to full production yet (Avondale should come on line later this year) say 10% to 20% and you get $1.00-$1.10?

Just some random thoughts.....who knows what the market will do....