Jake,
I don't think it works that way for metrics, as ADE was paid for its acreage, not percentage of booked reserves on 2 wells. Otherwise, Icon is worth zero, as there are no wells drilled right now.
The best metric to go on is the $/acre paid, including 855, because as you allude to, the shale play does not care where the SA/QLD boundary is, and based on geological mapping, you've got about half on each side.
by using the dollars/acre metric for ADE, and consequently the most recent price paid by bpt, then icon is worth at LEAST 27.7 cents/share using that same metric (which we all agree was a steal). (well, that is unless encounter encounters zero flow rates....)
Also, FYI, you are typically looking for an increase of a factor of 10 for a horizontal over a vertical, stabilized production. So say holdfast vertical stabilizes at 500 mcf/d, you would hope a horizontal would stabilize at 5 mmcf/d.
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Jake, I don't think it works that way for metrics, as ADE was...
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