a lot of people make comments like "this is only the beginning"...

a lot of people make comments like "this is only the beginning" or "this is like 1929" and just leave it at that
I mean why should we listen.
these people could be shoe shine boys for all we know
I think we should therefore start backing up comments with at least one or two facts

here are some of the indicators we should be using as facts to back up comments one way or the other.

can you think of anymore?


1. the vix (the fear index) is at an all time high

this could mean investors are either expecting a big change in the market on the upside or the downside

2. a survey by Allan Kohler of 10 top analysts shows none think we will go lower

six are saying buy 4 go back in with care

3. the PE for the market is below 10 ... 8.69

historically it hovers around 14

4. we have also seen investor panic and capitulation and despair that we normally see at market bottoms.

5. Warren Buffett is buying

6. everybody is saying "cash is king"

7. rba around the world are cutting rates
the US will probably start giving money away for free.

8. the average fall in markets over the last seven bear markets is 34%
We are down 44%

9. when the a recession is officially acknowledged ie 2 quarters of negative growth then that is usually thought to the bottom
however this hasn't happened yet
everybody seems to think we are in recession, the question is how deep will it go
the drop in dow last night seemed to be about not "if" but "for how long"