Indices 03/04, page-109

"peso is gonna keep rocketing if we get a pause too"

You will find that the opposite happens.
Other things being equal (or ceteris paribus for those of you who had expensive educations) the currency with the lower interest rate (AUD) is sold (borrowed) and the higher yielding currency (here the USD) is bought. This is colloquially known as the carry trade. The RBA pause increased the interest rate differential between the two currencies.

In fact this is what happened at 2:30 pm today:



It is also known that the market only reacts to surprises (unexpected news).
So was the RBA pause a surprise?
I believe it partially was, because the market had not made up its mind prior to the announcement, it was a close run thing.
The much watched 2-year Government bond rate did this in the 24 hour period prior to todays RBA media release suggesting that the market was ambivalent right to last minute.



Finally, it takes two to tango. Not only do the RBA decisions matter, but also those of the US Federal Reserve.
In fact, the reason for the recent relative strength of the AUD (weakness of USD) is because the market expects the US Federal Reserve to start cutting the US Fund Rate. This is what the US 2-Year T-Note has done lately.



Long story short, watch the yield curves of both countries for clues reagarding the direction of the exchange rate