Hey Clarkey, I don't understand your reasoning.
In your chart, the number of consecutive green days hit 8 on six occasions.
Three of those six times, the next day was red, but on the three other occasions it went on to be green for 9, 10 and 12 days.
Surely that is a nine (or more) day hit rate of 50% once eight is reached?
If so, based on your figures, the chance of a green day today was 3 ÷ 6 = 1/2 or 50%.
1 in 2, not 1 in 200?
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