Indices 10/10, page-249

Explaining last night with a piece of information all the big money movers have:

Biggest SP500 drawdown (based on closing prices) without recession in the past 80 years:

- 25% current
- 26% in 1962
- 26% in 1946
- 27% in 1980
- 33% in 1987

There was always a hard floor just below.

New computer systems in a pre-internet 1987 world causing a flash crash is probably not so relevent today so making a judgement call it exclude the -33%, we were pretty safe in a consensus belief that a closing low had reached it's destination area thereabouts.

Sostocks just don't close much further without already being in recession and combine that with the strongest months of seasonality approaching and I think a hard floor bounce of +10% in the next few months is likely even in an overall bear market.