SP500What an interesting couple of days, this is the kind of...

SP500

What an interesting couple of days, this is the kind of stuff that makes it worth it.

The lowest 4 closes of the year have happened in the last 9 days:

3577, 3583, 3585, 3588

All -25% from peak.

Consider that -30% has only happened once when not in recession in 1987.

So when we reached -27% on the intraday there was very little downside to be gained which led to an inflection point and a +4% intraday spike with a settling down the next day to take us back to the -25% close level for the 4th time.

I've been playing out this thesis in October that we have had a hard floor at this drawdown level at 3550 so while there's been volitility the closing low has held above this and if record core CPI can't break it it looks a very strong.

There is no data points I'm keen on until another 2 weeks so see clear air for the markets from here.

I've been using a +10% gain (using intraday figures) as my estimate for the rest of the year so based on 3491, +10% through the rest of year gets us to 3850.

Most of the excitement is probably done for the year in my view.