I believe we are there. Or close but pretty much there. We have seen a lot of prices come down and now it’s only really housing prices that need to come down as well as a bit of weakening on the labour side. Any hints of recessions imo will be deflationary and we have had a lot of recent earnings guidances and reports from US companies indicating a slowdown. There is still inflation out there sure but I think the question is- will inflation head higher? I’m betting the answer is no so imo the focus will turn at a deflationary environment. This is tricky though because it seems different parts in the world are experiencing different things. Perhaps they will be more structural to those particular places, hence why Lowe probably only moved .25 recently on opposed to .50 to try and match JPows previous .75. I think we might also be at peak consumer credit. A decrease in that should also be deflationary. Energy will be a big one. Can’t believe the freebies have made that problem much more difficult to solve now. It will be hard to reverse things that were needed like German coal or the keystone pipeline.
this is just my 2c anyways and of course there is way more to consider, but as we all know, anyone predicting inflation is pretty much 100% full of shit…
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