Had some time off and this is what I come back too! What a mess.
Had two trades so far, made 1K short the ftse and just got spanked 1K xjo long. Bit out of practice it seems, that FTSE short was a keeper.
Funny thing is I've been mostly shorting the markets for 9 months, waiting for times like this but the problem with day/swing trading is gives a memory like a goldfish. Probably a good thing.
Here's my longer term thesis for Australia, it's not all here as it would be too long:
But all this conjecture has really built up to something.
On my last check there were 7 or 8 countries experiencing hyper inflation.
Global output is dropping across the board.
Independent deals being struck to bypass US sanctions ie, Iran/Argentina China/Russia have built their bridge for goods transportation.
Did you hear Chinas Defence Minister say they will fight to the end if US intervenes with Taiwanese Democracy? Twice!
US consumers are using credit cards to cover inflation. Oh dear.
Crypto has done it's job of innovation and garnering interest and getting what it deserves for now.
This sort of news is everywhere, it's all true but it buries the good stuff.
The stagflation is a real threat and I assume it's playing out but there are good things too. I see patterns in these changes that will make things a bit rocky for a while but just different than the normal we know. When you see things from the depression era like pouring milk into streams because it costs too much to take to market, just think that's already happening here in QLD with avocado crops getting dumped. This is it, this it what it feels like. We are in it is my conclusion.
Countries being self sufficient is a good thing for the global carbon footprint and local production. Unlike us and our silly gas, selling it to buy it back at a higher price. We pump things and dig things out of the ground, burn things and move things...that break and get thrown in the bin then buried back in the ground because they were crap and we didn't really need them! Quite mad really. We can do better, all countries can.
I watched a vid recently where the IMF was forcing it's hand through policy setting onto larger companies to push for climate targets. And I mean force. The plan has been falling apart somewhat and the shortfall of inflows, the estimations are anywhere between 1.5 trillion and 30 trillion dollars to complete the transition. So nobody knows, it's just a lot. XJO is going to benefit hugely from this transition, and we now have a government that will actually at least talk about it. Hopefully tone things down with China too. For all the doom saying we are actually loaded with Phosphate too. I suspect some of the European population will eventually make their way out of the crowded cities and give Australia the population growth Asia provided pre covid. Maybe in Jestons spaceships instead of gas guzzling aircraft.
Here in the west things will be ok, just expensive for a while, long enough to change peoples habits of costly inefficiency. We won't be able to have anything we want, all the time. Simple things will be appreciated again, but we will have food and comforts. Pretty sure innovation and co-operation will prevail based on the fact that it always has. The industrial era will seem like dinosaur days as it already does. You bet we'll see it in our lifetimes. Remember Maxwell smart and his shoe phone? My dad had a brick phone in '89, it was embarrasing when he'd lump it on the table at a restaurant. I've driven a Model S, it was like my AFX slot cars.
So, we could look around at all these things and fear everyday. That's one option. Or we could look around for the changes that are working, and really thinking about about the things that may set this right and see which ones are in action.
If my thesis fails, there will be always Ewebutes soup kitchen and I'm sure Onetricky is a philanthropist at heart.
Anyway that's it from me, back to trading I spend too much time on this stuff. I'll try longs a couple more times and see if I can can get one to stick just maybe not here at 666. 6500 is looking probable as this weeks low and the trade might come after the fed speech I guess.
Happy trading
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