"The Fed won't raise Rates this Week"I agree, and hence my post...

"The Fed won't raise Rates this Week"

I agree, and hence my post in the bear thread yesterday (not sure why you left us alone there). Anyway, in an ideal world, Powell should raise, but given his history of refusing Viagra for raising purposes, he won't.

So, if that turns out to be true, the market pumps (to SPX ~5100) after the fed holds the rate.

[Official explanation]" Investors relieved.
[True cause]: Many went short and paid expensive put premiums. Time to bust them.

Then after a couple of days US dumps again (put premiums must get cheap again).

[Official explanation]: Investors realised they were supposed to get six rate cuts, and no they are getting zero.
[True cause]: The same. Investors realised they were supposed to get six rate cuts, and no they are getting zero.