Here's why FED Rates matter so much.Basis Points Hike Cycle -...

Here's why FED Rates matter so much.

Basis Points Hike Cycle - Recession Outcome
175 - No 1966
190 - Yes 2001
225 - Yes 2020
310 - No 1994
315 - No 1984
325 - Yes 1990
425 - Yes 2008
540 - Yes 1970
960 - Yes 1973
1000 - Yes 1981
1300 - Yes 1980

If they can keep rates to a under 400 bps they have historically had a 50% chance of avoiding recession vs 0% for anything higher.

Market expectations have a peak of 375 so they are right at the edge and hence why there is such sensitivity to inflation and fed reaction in recent months.