Industry Discussion - EVs / Battery Storage/ Lithium Market etc., page-22

I think the ban by 2035 is more a practical realisation that some manufacturers and industries will need a bit more time than others to fully transition as it is not a simple task - it just gives the legislators and manufacturers some wriggle room. This might be a small part of the market though.

As EV's get cheaper and more advanced, there will be a growing natural adoption regardless of the 2035 timeline.

As we get closer to the end of the 2020s I think more consumers will be reluctant to purchase an ICE car. Once there is an inflection point, there becomes a major depreciation consideration. You could argue that the 2nd hand market could be lucrative but I think the abundant supply of ICE cars will smash their value and we also don't know what further legislation will be brought in down the track regarding 2nd hand ICE vehicles. One such example could be phasing out 2nd hand ICE cars depending on the fuel purity they use. e.g. in Australia 91RON - just a hypothetical example.

Fuel costs between now and the end of the 2020s will ebb and flow. I have seen some extreme forecasts of oil hitting $150+ per barrel. Who knows if this will eventuate but if it does it will be front and centre of a lot of new car consumers. Even those in the 2nd hand ICE market will have 2nd thoughts and (depending on the viability/economics of the 2nd hand EV market) will evaluate things a bit more.

Finally, some legacy auto manufacturers are voluntarily phasing out ICE production much quicker anyway.

e.g. Volvo by 2030

Granted, these goals are not set in stone but if they focus on that goal and are successful, other manufacturers will take note.