Industry Discussion - EVs / Battery Storage/ Lithium Market etc., page-67

The information you posted was probably written around 2020 / 2021 when Covid-19 collapsed oil prices.

It will take some time for vehicle sales to reach 50%. Assuming that's 90m vehicles world wide, how much lithium would be used by 45m EV's. Even if that's 10 years away it still locks in demand growth of >200ktpa of LCE. At those growth rates big projects like SQM/Wesfarmer's Mt Holland project is supplying ~3 months world demand growth. If the growth is nearer 300ktpa then Mt Holland is nearer 2 months demand growth. The world is needing multiple big lithium projects coming online each year. This needs to happen every year and at the moment the big projects after KV, Mt Holland and Goulamina aren't even under construction yet.

Re 70k to buy an EV. Prices have fallen, so the Tesla Model 3 starts at A$54,900. Other models now start under $40k. They may not be to your taste but the range of more modestly priced EV's is increasing every month.


Trucks can be EV's now. Tesla has the Cybertruck in production and being used in the US. Other producers have trucks in production or close to production. There's now even haul trucks that are EV's. The electric haul trucks are not just tiny one's but big one's like the 980E-4 with a 369t payload capacity. CATL's looking at batteries for plane's. There's smaller cargo ships that are EV's. There's some battery electric trains under development. Over in China some models of vehicle are designed around swap out batteries so charging time for the battery isn't an issue.


Yep petrol will be around for a long time, but at what price if governments start pushing climate change avoidance agenda's? Your a brave individual if you trust government not to start tacking taxes onto petrol and rego costs for ICE vehicles. Look what they did to the price of cig's and beer.

What if the government decides to apply a tail pipe emissions tax to every vehicle and the tax is adjusted to collect the same amount of tax each year (increasing with inflation). Each time a ICE vehicle is retired, the levy on everyone else goes up. Over time inefficient ICE vehicles just become too expensive to run and then progressively more efficient ICE's also become too expensive to run. There's only two sure things in life, death and taxes. Do you trust the government not to introduce a tax like this. What if the Greens are part of a future government?