Industry news, page-1014

The following table contains the Immunomedics Management Revenue Projections in the SEC filing following the announcement of the Immunomedics buyout.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/722830/000110465920108121/tm2030753-2_sc14d9.htm



The SEC filing doesn't break out revenue projections for individual indications, however the DCF analysis by Centerview has this list of indications (based on management revenue forecasts) that were included in their analysis (and hence the management revenue forecasts):

(i) the gross profit expected to be generated by the Company for Trodelvy in metastatic triple negative breast cancer (or mTNBC),​

(ii) the gross profit expected to be generated by the Company for Trodelvy in metastatic urothelial cancer (or mUC),​

(iii) the gross profit expected to be generated by the Company for Trodelvy in estrogen receptor positive metastatic breast cancer (or ER+ mBC),​

(iv) the gross profit expected to be generated by the Company for Trodelvy in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (or mNSCLC),​

(v) the gross profit expected to be generated by the Company for other Trodelvy indications (including head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (or HNSCC), endometrial cancer (or ENDO), castration resistant prostate cancer (or CRPC) and Post-Neoadjuvant breast cancer)​

The following link has the approval history.

https://www.drugs.com/history/trodelvy.html

Unfortunately it's been a tough ask to find any PDF analyst reports that contain their own projections for Immunomedics. Maybe some people here that may have access?

I was able to dig up a 2020 Immunomedics Corporate presentation. This has all the indications they were chasing, including addressable market (for some).



This is an overview of the lead-indication. It is not clear (without further research/analysis) whether the market figures given for 3rd line TNBC are Total Addressable Market or estimate of market share.



The following is the pricing for the drug:




I guess the questions shareholders and investment analysts need to answer for themselves (for Zantrene in Cardioprotection) ...

1. What is the likely set of future indications for Zantrene in Cardioprotection?
2. What is the likely size of each of these indications (# of patients)?
3. What is the likely drug pricing for Zantrene in cardioprotection?
4. What is the likely patent life?
5. What year is a potential partner / buyer likely to be able to commence sales?
6. Is adoption for Zantrene in a cardioprotection likely to be slow than or faster than the revenue ramp-up curve  (YoY growth and decline %) for Immunomedics drug Trodelvy?
7. What is a potential revenue ramp-up curve?
8. What is the likely discount rate used?
9. What is the likely probability of success?

and then compare size of the Zantrene cardioprotection revenue opportunity with the Immunomedics revenue forecasts to get a feel for potential value difference between the two.

My view is that Zantrene pricing will probably be lower than the pricing of Trodelvy for reasons of economies of scale (set of potential indications I suspect is much larger but haven't attempted the detailed analysis to confirm - although the info shared in the following posts give us some insights without looking at numbers of patients - Post #:66242428 and Post #:66257974).

I think that Immunomedics revenue forecast for Trodelvy is potentially the best comparator for the Cardioprotection opportunity, but there are likely significant differences in underlying assumptions (drug pricing, # of patients, speed of ramp up, etc).