i am certainly bullish on gold but not exclusively so. i lost a bit of money in the last 12 months being a bit too blinkered toward gold whilst everything else has been going gangbusters. i dont think gold is going to hit $1,000 in the next 12 months like some might believe i think it will be a much more drawn out process than that.
the usd is devaluing but there is still a sheetload of capital going into it - and that capital has to be parked somewhere. M3 is increasing and i think it has a flow on effect into assets.
i dont think there will be a capital flight from us dollars because effectively the asian countries are just printing their own currency to buy us dollars - so it is not costing them anything up front. but it does have the effect of inflating their own currencies ie the us exporting its inflation to the world as you say.
so imo long term gold is a no brainer i dont think deflation is an option. but in the short to medium term i think it will stay in the doldrums and there is money to be made on the market. i dont think the markets are going to crash. changes to us legislation are giving tax breaks to us companies who repatriate their profits to the us. this is going to stabilise the usd in the short to medium term and i dont think support at 80 will be broken for a while.
i am actually 80% cash at the moment just waiting to see what the new year brings. watching OXR closely though as i think it might go for a bit of a run.
