CLE cyclone metals limited

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The rise in the EUR share...

  1. 2,298 Posts.
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    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The rise in the EUR share price is great, but in reality our only positive asset. The NZ and Oz projects are duds. The Moosh Moosh deal highlights this. The block 103 project is only potential at present. The cost of this project was about a million and shares were given. Essentially even.
    To date all that has been done to Block 103 is to confirm what we already knew - we have a lot of taconite that can be concentrated into a good magnetite product. The issue is logistics. And therefore CAPEX. There are half a dozen magnetite projects in and around Schefferville. They have all tried to get off the ground and fly. They have all failed because of logistics and CAPEX. Without overcoming both of these issues, we have only potential. And until that potential is realized the MC is only worth $AU10M.

    CLE has looked at the material and worked out the production issues and have come up with outstanding results. Already a known. However they have not solved the logistics nightmare. The production sweet spot is 20Mtpa. This requires 20Mtpa per annum to be carted to port and put on a boat. There are 4 hotspots to consider. A fifth issue has been considered and solved. This is freezing of the product in the rail cars preventing year round transport.

    The first is the rail line from Schefferville to Labrador city. This only has 18Mtpa capacity and is timber sleeper track. Most likely this only has 6Mtpa spare capacity.This can be upgraded by using sidings.
    The second is the line from Labrador Cith down to near Sept-iles. The track has concrete sleepers and a max capacity of 50Mtpa and is a near capacity. This can be upgraded with sidings.
    The bottlenecks are in the last 34 kms and the port. The last 34kms of rail is at capacity.
    And the port is at capacity.
    None of these problems can be solved without an significant increase in CAPEX.
    The good thing is that they can be solved. The last 34 kms of rail can be duplicated and they can create more port capacity.
    Or alternatively the first line to Labrador City could be up graded with sidings to Labrador City then a new line be built along side the Trans Canada Hwy to Goose Bay where there is spare port capacity. This would have shipping restrictions for 3-4 months a year. The trains would run all year.

    This would then create a major CAPEX problem. This would make it a $US17B CAPEX that only produces 20Mtpa. This is very hard maths to make the project viable. This may be less with a PFS. The CAPEX would be $US8B for mine and production costs including pelletizing plants. I am working with this figure until shown otherwise. It may be half this but I doubt it. The rail logistics could run up to $US4B for a electrified line, Half for standard line but better benefits for electrification.

    This is out of CLE's league and the BOD knows it. Their intention is to use their normal MO and pretty the project up with a new dress and some lipstick. I am hoping that they do not sell to the first person that comes along offering notes rather than loose change. The true value of the resource is $US5B plus ongoing royalty.

    Can these issues be solved? Yes. Get CN to build own and operate the rail. Use other miners to support a base load for the rail and also the port upgrades. Get TSN to upgrade their line. Pay CLE with script. CLE to optimize the project from go to whoa and bring the CAPEX down to circa $US4B.

    Until CLE show that they intend to get true value for the project it is only worth the current MC. The EUR shares are for the expenses required to dress the project up. The question remains will the BOD dress it up as Cinderella or just as a wallflower?


 
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