infrastucture deals and wheels, page-11

The mmx sp of $4 is quite reflective of current stage of development of the mine and its market capitalisation.

The infrastructure tender is not a foregone conclusion. Anyone who thinks that should think again. On may 9, I expect the yilgarn group to tender through midwest and provide a very competitive bid for mitsubishi to match or better.

A successful tenderer will not be decided until June. If mmx succeeds it sp should increase substantially to reflect the business that will bring in $1.5 billion per year. Under those circumstances the mmx sp should experience the double digit figures referred to by Merrils in their reports.

However, there is the speculation that the yilgarn/sino/mis group may be so disfunctional that they may not be in a position to lodge a tender in time. If that occurs then mmx should win by default. But you should expect legal action if that occurs. Time will tell.

The sp has not factored in the new iron ore tenements yet.

May 08 will also be the time for reporting the resource upgrade for jack hills. It should reflect the steady and methodical progress that has been adopted by mmx management. I don't expect any more than what we have had in the past - a modest increase with some excellent, some moderate and some not so wonderful grades.

Finally the court case with chm. The claim is rubbish and the substantive case will not get going until 2009 and is unlikely to have any effect on sp. It certainly has not had any effect on chm sp. Indeed chm will need to raise capital to pay for their case and mmx costs. But they will have great difficulty unless they can get their sp up to 15-20c so that investors have some confidence of profit from a share issue. Despite all the touting and ramping around sydney they cant get it much past 4c. And a capital raising will dilute this even further. In other words chm will not be able to raise enough cash to push the case through to finality. chm are as good as finished with this case. Time will kill off chm.