Lithium tochoked Europe
In Ukraine, Russia is fighting for raw materials
Smoke at the front in the region of Donetsk. Mineral resources are located among the devastated forests.
In the West, the war is often seen as a loss business for Russia. That is not the Russian perspective. This war is about raw materials. And around the future: Russia can rob Ukraine more than it would lose in peace.
It remains a mystery why in Western Russia's economic and material interests are not recognised as a decisive cause of war. Before discussing alleged or actual Russian security interests, one should first look at Russia's economic profit and loss account in order to understand what is to be secured.
Russia's economic losses caused by the war and sanctions of the West are somewhat well known. According to US Vice President Kamala Harris, they are expected to be around 1.3 trillion dollars by 2025. The direct financial expenditure for the implementation of the "special operation" is currently estimated at about 250 billion dollars. Although these losses were not planned, there are currently far higher, albeit only provisional gains on Russia's credit side.
Bloody battles for "white gold"
In front reports, especially from Donbas, you can see devastated forests and destroyed villages, but not the treasures in the ground. These are often the reason for the battles. For more than two years, the Russians have been trying to conquer the small Ukrainian town of Kuraciakhev, where lithium is worth hundreds of billions of dollars in the Shevchenko deposit.
The occupiers in Donetsk were certain already on 10. January 2024 "Aspertificates" for lithium production in the region sent to Moscow, to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecologies of the Russian Federation.
A few weeks before the start of the Russian invasion in December 2021, the Ukrainian government granted the Australian company European Lithium the funding rights for this deposit. The bid by the Chinese company Chengxin Lithium was dismissed at the time. According to its own claim, the Australian development company wants to be "the first supplier of battery-capable lithium in a fully integrated European battery supply chain". In the summer of 2023, European Lithium CEO Tony Sage explained that the Company no longer claims to be entitled to the Shevshnekovsky Sea field - it is too close to the front.
Without lithium we have a problem
Lithium is used as a material "from which the future is made", as "white gold" and "oil of the 21. century". It is a metal of superlatives, the lightest of the periodic table, with the highest electrochemical potential and the highest specific heat capacity of solids. The lithium-ion technology is intended to ensure the energy transition and electric mobility.
In a speech at the end of March 2024, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned about the great lithium dependency of the Europeans of the People's Republic of China, 97 percent of imports from there. "Batteries powered by our electric cars will increase the demand for lithium by 17 times by 2050," said von der Leyen. Should the export of lithium be limited by China, "then we really have a problem," warned Minister of Economy Robert Habeck in July 2023.
With the help of Ukrainian lithium, the European Union could significantly reduce its dependence on Chinese suppliers, as Ukraine is accounted for by Ukraine, according to the National Association of Raw Material Manufacturers in Ukraine (NEIAU), one third of the explored lithium departments in Europe. China therefore cannot have an economic interest in full economic integration of Ukraine into the West and to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This should be considered by "negotiating advocates" in the West, who see China as a potential mediator between the warring parties.
Russia's sedacy
A study by the Canadian think tank SecDev concludes that Russia controls energy deposits, metals and minerals worth at least 12.4 trillion dollars in the occupied territories of Ukraine, including 41 coal fields (63 percent of Ukrainian coal deposits), 27 natural gas fields, nine oil fields, six iron ore deposits, two titanium deposits, stron and uranium deposit deposit, a gold deposit and a large calcare stone fry. The total value of Ukraine's national commodities is estimated at over 26 trillion dollars.
The Russian major general Vladimir Ovuchtinsky, a former head of the Russian Interpol, also referred to this assessment of the Canadians in August 2022 in his article "Lithium and Death". In typical Russian return of guilt, General Ovcharinsky claimed that "the time has now come for American wars for the 'white gold'." Only Russia's intervention has "prevented the direct seizure of lithium deposits."
The Russian writer Eduard Topol, who lives in exile, commented on this by saying that it was clear why Putin had marched into Ukraine: the "military special operation" is actually "special operation to confiscate Ukrainian lithium." Putin wanted to hit Europe with it: if Europe reduces its consumption of oil, it must be strangled with lithium, Topol described Putin's position.
Russia can rob more in war than it would lose in peace
A few months before the start of the Russian invasion, the EU and Ukraine had signed a "Green Deal", an almost revolutionary transformation program for Ukraine. The Ukrainian economy was the most energy-intensive in the world with the most ineffective and most expensive thermal power generation. Now the country should reach climate neutrality by 2060. The EU wanted to establish a commodity and energy alliance with Kiev, because Ukraine's enormous potential and geographical proximity make it a natural partner of other Europeans.
"Ukraine not only has huge areas for the expansion of wind energy and great potential for photovoltaic plants, it also has a special advantage: the infrastructure to transport green hydrogen to Germany and thus to the EU," explained Andreas Kuhlmann, head of the German Energy Agency (Dena). 22 out of 30 strategically important raw materials, the delivery of which is considered critical by the EU, can be obtained in large quantities in Ukraine, including titanium, magnesium, iron ore, kaolin, manganese, zirconium, graphite and many others.
But Europe's climate goals and "green" Ukrainian energy are existential dangers for Russia’s business and existence model, the sale of fossil fuels. Economically, the war is certainly worthwhile for Russia if it achieved its war goals. Because through wars, Russia can rob and win much more than it would lose in peace.
