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if smac is correct and the release date is early February we...

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captainblood

4,240 Posts.

12465

27/10/18

11:24

Post #: 36283321
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Originally posted by smac656 ↑

Several weeks ago, a new OBJ/P&G patent application was made public (http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2018/0264245.html). This was for the SK-II Magnetic Booster and it focused on the enhancements of the magnetic applicator when combined with vibration. One thing that caught my attention was the appearance of a new ingredient in the patent content. This is Inositol. It is mentioned 14 times in the patent while it is not mentioned at all in prior OBJ patent applications. Furthermore one of the studies used to verify the magnetic booster was performed with Inositol as the ingredient. So clearly Inositol has been added to the list of ingredients that P&G want OBJ tech to work with.

Looking back at past OBJ announcements, in a shareholder update from January 2016 (https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160127/pdf/434lnsgcqv4jl0.pdf) we were given some performance data for OBJs DCE technology tested on an unnamed skin whitening ingredient. That ingredient was Inositol (as can be seen from the chart in the announcement) :

Since we have now been told to expect our first integrated product from SK-II and since Inositol is a relatively recent interest for P&G+OBJ, its worth identifying what SK-II products contain Inositol. Turns out there are just two :

And the presence of Inositol is strongly advertised :

At this point I have to confess that some of the above was already revealed on hc last year by abdm : https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/17406052/single. He was first to notice the inositol chart and that the sk-II products, which had just been released, contained that ingredient. The only other point to make here is to link DCE with advanced packaging and integrated products. cmk has had clarification from Glyn in the past to the effect that at least one of the products being planned used both DCE and advanced/integrated packaging.

Timing

Setting aside the whole ingredient issue, lets look at the other clue we have been given :

"Two new fully integrated products planned for launch in early 2019"

At this point I pull out my trusty and well worn product release announcement schedule for SK-II over the past 10 years:

A few things here are relevant :

1) SK-II is well behind on their normal release schedule! 4 to 5 products is normal, but in 2018 they have only released a single product and that product was just a re-packaging of an existing one. In fact the last truly new product was the Magnetic Booster and the airy cream back in July 2017.

2) there is an established pattern of releasing whitening products in the first few months of the year, and that the main whitening products (the essence and spot treatment are released each 2 years. Specifically for the essence:
Feb 2010 Cellumination Essence
Feb 2012 CelluminationEssence EX
Feb 2014 Cellumination Aura Essence
Feb 2016 Genoptics Aura Essence

So there it is. every 2 year in February, the new whitening essence is announced. And yet Feb this year was skipped. Surely SK-II won't miss another year. A new version of this essence product seems certain and since it and other whitening products are typically the only releases in the early part of the year, it seems certain that Genoptics Aura Essence is due for the OBJ treatment.

One important caveat to the above release schedule. Those February dates are for the official Japanese product announcements which is traditionally where SK-II products are first launched. In the past few years however, some SK-II products (including both OBJ products) have been getting pre-released in other countries. The eye wand was released in Korea 4 months prior to its Japan release, and the Magnetic Booster was released in Singapore about 1 month prior to Japan. So we may not need to wait until February for the announcement. Given Chinese new year is on February 5, we might just see an early release at the beginning of January on TMall or elsewhere to give SK-II their badly needed new product in time for the holiday. Whatever the case, it is coming and its not far off now.

Expand

if smac is correct and the release date is early February we only have 3 and a bit months to the release. even if his specifics aren't correct (its hard to refute his excellent post) the agm Ann claimed 2 products to be released, early 2019, so you can probably assume the release date of 1 of them to be close to early February.
the announcement of the release of a new product, usually is 1-2 months before the release date. we should be getting this Ann, in the next month or so. not long now. imo.

OBJ Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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