INR Chart Chat, page-378

When will the next leg of INR come ?

.
From a weekly perspective, INR held 21 where it finished. It is now playing in uncertain state. It played in a narrow range between 20/21.5 the whole week, not getting any strong directions for now.
.
So what is happening in INR? Its trying to hold current levels. Just around 20 (+/- 1) is very important zone. It rose from its 52 week low of 10.5 to 52 week high of 32.5, now sitting right in between. Which way will it go?

There are three major factors in play

• Li macros - This is overall in hold state or getting better in US and China.
• ASX Li play - ASX Li stocks are now diverging from major plays of other jurisdiction, like ALB (US), Ganfeng (China). Although they are holding or gaining, ASX Li stocks are declining. Not sure why.
• INR Play - At this stage I am not sure if announcement could help do something drastic, something very different from how other ASX Li stocks are playing. Or maybe I am not abreast, there could be a news in the offing.

A combination of above 3 means its playing weak. How long will it play weak? ASX Li stocks have to close the divergence to plays of ALB/Ganfeng. And hope that they continue to hold or rise. ALB/Ganfeng are doing their job, but ASX Li stocks are not moving, maybe the risk appetite of ASX punters is different, and they may be more risk-averse, at least at this stage. That sentiment has to change. Till then we wait.

From numbers perspective, INR needs to hold here, at least till 19. If 19 falls, next big number is 16. Just a month back it made its 52 week high of 32.5. That was a very steep rise. And it came down also in an escalator. Its there somewhere in the middle floor. Its showing signs of volatility in medium term. Signs of stability in short term. So its a stock where one can miss a play, both up and down, because its swift. Anyone playing short-term, have to be on their toes. Very alert.
.
Now looking at other 2 stocks I talk and track, use it for providing direction -

Last 4 weeks play -

• Ganfeng - 5% gain Week 1, 5% gain week 2, 5% gain week 3, and 2% gain week 4 - current week - so overall a great play
• ALB - 2% gain week 1, 3% gain week 2, 5% gain week 3, and holding the level, down 0.3% in 4th week, but tonight yet to play - so again a very good play

.
ASX Li stocks comparatively, very poorly. They are dropping, in recent weeks and clear divergence now. In this period from 1st Nov, last 4 week play, PLS has dropped from 289 to 239 - a drop of around 18%. LTR dropped from 81 to 73, around 10%, But most drops happened in last 2 weeks. LTR has now dropped from 91 to 73, around 20%. PLS from 327 to 239 - a drop of 27%. Both Ganfeng and ALB have gained in this period, handsomely. So the difference is stark.

.

So what may happen next week? A very concerning play happening now in ASX arena. I first saw this with ASX Uranium stocks where clear divergence started happening for several weeks. Unfortunately even after couple of months, it has not rectified. ASX Li divergence started couple of weeks back. Early days but no signs yet that divergence will close. We can only hope that ALB/Ganfeng and Li macro keeps improving, and ASX Li stocks finally remove the divergence. Then we can see a decent rise happening. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best