Is INR going back to its 52 week low?.From a weekly perspective,...

Is INR going back to its 52 week low?

.
From a weekly perspective, INR moved from 17.5 to 16.5, and the weekly pattern of slide continues
.
So what is happening in INR? Overall weak. Looking very vulnerable now, from a trading pattern, stock price perspective.

Like last few weeks, there are three major factors in play

• Li macros - This is overall in hold/slight weak state. Both the Chinese and US Li stocks easing a bit now after very good few weeks. Second week in a row, now dropped over 10% from its high.
• ASX Li play - ASX Li stocks have now clearly diverged from major plays of other jurisdiction, like ALB (US), Ganfeng (China). Playing extremely weak and towards their bottom, whereas most US/Chinese stocks 40/50% above their lows.
• INR Play - This hot and cold stock, which moved from 10 to 32, looking very hot, now doing the reverse, looking very cold.

.
INR is just following the Li macro, the ASX Li macro, and playing weak. From a numbers perspective, extremely vulnerable. It has dropped over 50% from its recent high of 32.5, touched 16 today, playing with 16.5 last 4 days. Every week showing weakness. If Li macro does not hold, or slide, INR may be in good trouble.
.
Last week I mentioned that ASX punters are playing very weak across a lot of risk on stocks. And this play is just not Uranium or Lithium. There are 2 pressures. One, globally, risk-on sectors, spec play is weakest in last several years. More or less dead. Secondly, ASX punters are not even playing like their overseas counterparts, playing more weak. A combination of these two has made it deadly, sentiment rank poor, any positivity is based on miracles rather than numbers or trading patterns. Only thing on our side - this is going on for some time, law of probability and history suggests that things will turn one day. We may be getting closer to that day/period. Lets hope.

ASX Li stocks which were lagging big time US and Chinese Li stocks, had to make gains and bridge the divergence. Instead, as US/Chinese Li stocks are sliding slowly down, ASX Li stocks are also moistly drifting, many trying to hold the current levels. But still weakness across the board.

.
Personally, I did pick up some Li stocks last week. I was hoping for a bounce this week. On Monday ALB did a big jump and crossed 113, finished at 109, from its previous week close of 104. It looked like the bounce play may happen. But Chinese Li stocks didn't support it next day. No big drop, but still in red. ALB needed a boost, it did not get one. Since then all its effort is in trying to hold this 102/104 level. Not extremely weak, but lost the exuberance of Monday. I started offloading some of my Li stocks, most at break even from my buy of last week. Still hold some. I had written I had got some INR at 17/17.5 last week, in addition to my previous hold. Those new buys I let go at break even around 17.5. Selling even at break even sometimes looks like a big win - to think like that shows the dire straits we are in. Still hold others from before where I am slightly down - lets see.
.

So what may happen next week? Chinese Li stocks had a decent drop today of over 3%. On a weekly basis, they have dropped between 3 and 5%. So the strong play that was happening couple of weeks back is definetly not there now. Have they made a top couple of weeks back and will retreat? Or they are consolidating after decent gain to prepare for next leg up? No strong signals yet. Tonight crucial play for ALB. Can it hold 102/104 level or drop below 100 after seeing the Chinese play today?. If it drops below 100, it may be a rough start for us on Monday. But if it holds, slight red or better green, then concept of consolidation will be alive and keep the hopes of ASX Li stocks recovering in short period - may be a Santa rally. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best