You have valid points, especially around what stage a stock is, and what jurisdiction. Most holders try to find a point which makes them comfortable.
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I am not disputing any of your points. The reason I talk about Li macro and patterns is based on the weekly report I do. I look at 90 asx Li stocks, some US Li stocks and some Chinese Li stocks. And I find a pattern. In terms of price movement, irrespective of what stage the stock is, explorer, developer, producer - the stock price patterns are very similar. Close to 90% of the movement happens of how the sector is moving. Last 3 years sector is going down, most Li stocks too.
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Before that in say 2021, every Tom, Dick and Harry associated with Lithium was doubling, tripling, even going 10 times. Irrespective of stage, jurisdiction, etc. Things have done about turn. My reading of the numbers says, very few stocks are defying the trend..
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In recent times, of 90 Li stocks I cover, many have made a move, but not able to sustain. Even INR moved from 10 to 30, but now trying to hold 15. Also, INR has come down from 80+. Most other stocks similar stories. Look at the number, last week I posted for last 2 years, 90 Li stocks.
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It doesn't mean future will be same. Things could change dramatically. But odds are not great. Hope you understand the point I am making. There is no right or wrong. We all speculating. We will get some right and some wrong. I hope your theory comes out right. I wish you well.
