Have we made our lows of this phase?.
From a weekly perspective, INR played according to macro. It moved from 16 to 17, in line with average gains made by many Li stocks this week.
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So what is happening in Li sector/stocks? Last week I had shown the figures where most stocks across Chinese/US/ASX had finished flat. I had also written that ALB needs to hold the 85 level, for no further declines, and Ganfeng to hold their last week level. I had also written that for any positivity, and signs of sector coming back, ALB has to reach 92/94 level, and Ganfeng 37/38 level. So what happened this week? ALB has obliged. Currently at 94, even finished 95 day before. Ganfeng at 35.54, reached 36.39 intra-day, so getting there. Not nearly there, but a very good week. Both ALB and Ganfeng made around 8% for the week. PLS too made 8% for the week. So this is second week in a row the Chinese/US/ASX are playing exactly same in the sector. Last week flat. This week positive 8%. So a very good second week now. Still early days, but good sign.
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So what is happening with INR? Still playing the macro. There was nothing this week, which looked like its own play. Down and up were small swings according to Li macro. Last week also it made a burst and reached 18. And then came back to 15. This week too, today, made another burst to 17.5. So is trying, but not able to break the zone. No news of its own to give that extra momentum. A break above 18 is important, but for any positive play, above 20 is minimum. Lets hope it happens soon.
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So what may happen next week? Last week I had written, it looks very uncertain. This week we have hope. There is a good probability most Li stocks may have made their 52 week lows in recent time. Tonight is a big play. ALB needs to hold 92/94 level. The next level is around 102/104, but before that it has to scale 98. Chinese stocks came roaring today and made big gains early in the day. Like most Fridays, which I have been writing, Chinese stocks play weak in second half of Friday. That play continued. So a big gain was reduced to a moderate. But still a decent gain for the day. ALB may want to consolidate at 92/94 level so that it can become ready for next level. It can go straight, but consolidation and then a jump may be more positive. General markets too held. CPI/PPI data came in all right. Bitcoin after reaching 90k is back over 100k. VIX below 20. So signs are good. But we need to seize the momentum, the positivity that is slowly building. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)