Weekly data and thoughts. . . .Lithium Sector Overview- . . Last week I wrote - INR needs to cross 18, which I feel may happen next week. Next level to cross is 22. But the big level is 32. It cross 18. It reached 22 but couldn't cross it. 32 is still far away. It finished on 18, so slight gain from 17 last week. So what does not crossing 22 say? Some weakness in short term, especially with how Li macro is playing. I got out around resistance for my short-term play for now and am watching. . Last week things were looking great for Li sector. Very good odds of a run continuing. ALB had reached 99, rising from 85. Did not do the requisite 20% gain, towards 102 to confirm the uptrend though. Ganfeng had reached 36.39, close to the number of 37/38 I felt was required to hold for confirmation of uptrend. None of that happened. . This week everything went kaput. ALB did not go above 99, did not scale 102/104 I felt was required for bullish play, instead, did 4 reds in 4 days of the week. Lost around 9% for the week. Ganfeng did not go above 36.39, instead finished at 33.60, losing around 6% for the week. PLS lost 3%, VUL lost 13%, WC8 lost 10%. LTR gained but pared its gains. So overall again in very concerning position. Tianqi had a big loss to state this week, stopped its expansion in Australia. Has painted a dismal situation for producers. At one stage Tianqi was down over 10% for the week, pared some late Friday, but still was down around 7% for the week. Spot price also looks like tapering. .
So what are the numbers? In any downtrend, ALB needs to hold 85/86, which marks around 20% gain from bottom, otherwise a drop below 80 is possible. Gangeng needs to hold 30, around 20% gain from its bottom. For any upside ALB has to regain 92/94 level, Ganfeng 37/38. Anything in between, stocks will drift with no direction. . Chinese New Year is on, Chinese markets closed for over a week. That will also just not provide extra ammunition from uptrend. So not looking great, but things can change quickly. It changed from good to bad this. Could change from bad to good soon. Best to follow price action and not assume anything, for those playing short to medium term trades. I am not very confident about short-term play, so taking breather from a few regular ones I play. . Here is the Figures for the Week:. . .
INR Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
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