Froneman said recently during an interview that they'd probably like to go ahead with the deal but that he did not know how they could pay for it, because they couldn't pay for it via a loan, nor via a capital raising, so he was unsure how it could be done, and especially given they've just taken out a 500m Euro (AUD $825m ; USD $525m) loan for their Finland lithium project.
And now the capex on their other projects is ballooning by up to 23%.
I therefore cannot see how, under the current agreement, that they could possibly afford to pay their previously agreed share of Rhyolite.
I think that Sibanye will request an extension of time, and that is what the next announcement will be, possibly up to 2 months extension, or longer.
My bet is that Sibanye are searching around for a finance partner, so that Sibanye will be diluted to 25%, the new partner will have 25%, and Ioneer will have 50%.
In order for Sibanye to find someone interested in taking on half their share though, they are going to have to give them all the data and documents, and then give them plenty of time to process them, hence the delays.
As a result of this, I think Sibanye won't be able to provide a decision within the next 3 months, and the previously hoped for time frame here by INR may blow out considerably, but INR will have no choice but to wait.
Either this, or Sibanye will pull out completely because the deposit is clay hosted, and as such carries greater risk for them in the processing.
I'm just speculating here, but if you look back at the history of this stock, many might assume that this is not an unreasonable speculation.
Gw
INR Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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