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INSIDE STORY. Libs smell a rat in Wentworth, page-31

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greenhart

13,639 Posts.

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18/09/18

11:53

Post #: 35668241
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Originally posted by Orson ↑

In the 2016 election Turnbull got 62% of first preferences. I'm predicting a drop of at least 15%, which would put the seat in play.

The conservative vote in that seat is minimal. Labor was 17.7% and Greens 14.9%. Next was the Arts Party at 1.8% and the Science Party on 1.2%. The Christian Dems were at 1.1%

An independent like Phelps could get the protest vote that people who will never vote Labor want to give. If that's more than the Labor primary vote then none of the preferences from that protest vote by Liberals will flow back to the Liberal candidate. Mathematically, that means she can win the two party preferred. She was polling 11% before she even nominated, so it's possible. The smartest thing Labor voters could do is to vote Phelps, as I don't think Labor can win the two party preferred.

Phelps could win if the Liberal voters in Wentworth are as angry as the Liberal voters in my electorate.

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There was a ReachTel poll back in October 2017 that had LP first prefs on 41%, a drop of 21% since the 2016 election.
57 LP / 43 Lab TPP.

http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/TAI-19October17-Wentworth Kooyong Warringah - NEG.pdf

Last edited by greenhart: 18/09/18
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