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What a solid couple of days we've had. 50m shares went through...

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06/04/17

16:25

Post #: 23912319
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Originally posted by airconditioner ↑

Hey Sharks

"Only" 25% was still 6.46m short sells, making it the second largest short selling day in recent times. (Can't be bothered looking right now - but my guess would be that should actually be "on record").
Only beaten by the day when we had 73%(!) of trades short on the 15th March.
Yesterday followed a day when they had already done 45.6% the day before.
Capitulation, tight stop losses often then have a trailing effect.
Quite possible that they could see a rabble of new retail shorters getting involved.
Undisciplined shorting by little dudes, easily spooked and with tight stop-losses can spell the end of a co-ordinated shorting attack.
I'd say a lot of them covered into this morning's retail short push. Almost all of those fresh shorts would have lost that play, having arrived way too late to do damage - only to their own trading account.

Logic says there is some co-ordination here between instos and the broker reports point at a set including the typical Deutsche and UBS as being responsible.

The most tried and true method to bring down a share price is to have a combination of actual shares to sell and then back up with shorts. Start with many millions of real shares. Sell down "real" shares so that you get to a new price point then demolish it with shorts. Rinse and Repeat - as they say. You need the "real" shares to keep moving it down - because the rules say you can't short below the current market price.
(this is why I don't comment on the bots. Some are clearly defensive - keeping share price above the current marketable price so that a short can't be made).

Then the insto covers the long position when the short action has run its course.
That is what I think is happening today. Pushing their luck to try to get another 10c down.
Too much resistance and fundamental support.

Last time it was a 20c drop from 50s to 30c.
Same appears to be the pattern now, making shares sub 50c a bargain.
(and if the pattern plays out once more we will see a rise into the 70s with another tilt at another 20c swing down to 50c).

Last time it was Mac Bank post GMM take over. (imo).
They had picked up a significant position in GMM (hiding their sub holding under multiple nominee accounts), benefitted from arbitrage and then before most of GMM had their GXY shares, sold out their GXY, shorted and then sold out a second wave down from 40c with their "real" converted shares, and then shorted again.
But - importantly - that time, they had it all set up with a negative report on over-supply that had rattled the whole sector, globally. They smashed GXY at its moment of semi-triumph and then the rest of oz lithium sector softened enough for shorts across all lithium stocks.

Good to see that the company is on the front foot this time with a set of announcements to set a bit of perspective.
Mine report is glowing, presentation and appointments both polished.

Of most interest to me right now is the line about SDV
"Discussions underway with offtakers and potential strategic partners".
If GXY can put meat on those bones we have a $1.4b NPV asset that needs to priced in.
They are already targeting 2019 production - and that is just around the corner as far as instos are concerned.
Hence - this driving down of price - for no real fundamental reason, other than to get set with better entries. Retail is just along for the ride.
They draw the charts for the TA guys to obey.

Well-heeled and disciplined longs (or the same instos switching back to accumulation) now can make a lot of money if they can line wipe each successive sell down wave, building more covering pressure. This pattern pushed the share price very quickly upwards in December.
Seems to be happening again now...

Expand

What a solid couple of days we've had.

50m shares went through yesterday and a further 31m today for a combined SP increase of 7c from the low of 40.5c up 16%

As the days and weeks pass by the Company continues to tick all of the boxes and is steadily and methodically progressing its business on all three fronts.

Shorters have had the upper hand until yesterday but it is difficult to get an actual handle on the exact total short position since ASIC are 3 or 4 days behind.

From what I can make out the position maybe:-

As per ASIC on 31st March'17 - actual short position was 57.7m

Since then Shortman shows:-

3rd April'17 - daily short of 5.9m
4th April'17 - daily short of 6.4m
5th April'17 - daily short of 10.6m

So would the actual total position as at the close yesterday be the sum of the total - 80.6m ?

Is there a more accurate way of doing this ?

GXY Price at posting: 47.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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