The new Top 20 shows that Hawke’s Point have tipped in another...

The new Top 20 shows that Hawke’s Point have tipped in another $1.2 m, HSBC lifted its holding and JP Morgan has jumped up the Top 20 ladder from 19 to 13.

These are some of the smartest and profitable instos internationally and their support for Rox should give us retail holders confidence that the PFS coming this month (assuming the ASX approves it) will have good, probably compelling, metrics.

But insto support does not signal a re rate after the PFS imo, these instos are long term players aiming for Disallowed+ in Q4 2025 or 2026. The DFS mid 2025 or the decision to mine + getting the finance are the most likely re-rate triggers and note that management have run their performance options right out to 2027 and that even includes a 25cps target.

With Rob Ryan in charge of the feasibility studies and Chris Hunt managing the finances, Rox has the right people to deliver the studies and the finance on time, perhaps much quicker than expected. Hawke's Point will be backing them with technical expertise and access to capital markets. The current gold bull market conditions are much like 2008, and 2015, that saw exceptional gains in gold stocks and Rox could make extraordinary gains.

The long game the instos are playing has the lowest risk although I’d love to be surprised on the upside (for a change) with a near term re-rate.

Against the long-term investment strategy in Rox the Youanmi project MRE with a strong PFS would be astonishingly undervalued without a re rate to a market valuation of $100m+.

A supressed SP and low market value can signal TO intentions. Are Ramelius or Westgold going to spring a hostile TO after the PFS? Board control is 51% after which there are mechanisms to encourage or force other holders out such as non-renounceable CRs set at a price that will exclude most other holders and therefore dilute them. The Venus stake + disaffected retail holders could deliver board control at 50 cps imo. Speculative but not to be ruled out. Let’s hope Rox can jump through the ASX hurdles (and they will be closely scrutinised) to deliver the PFS on time.