I've looked at the issue of supply side response in some detail, especially from China. If you can read Chinese there is a huge amount of articles about the direction of their phosphate industry. In summary, the Chinese are extremely worried about using up their rock phosphate deposits too fast. Their are estimates that current reserves will be gone in 10 years, and shortages starting to emerge in 2010. This year they are still in a slight surplus, but the industry is very much shifting towards conserving what is seen as a precious resource in the face of high long term prices.
What I have read is the absolute opposite of a couple downramping posters rubbishing on about China flooding the market. Its not going to happen. As for the Saudis, they will be producing DAP, not exporting rock. Even Morocco is moving in this direction, conserving rock.
MAK is very well placed. Remember it is the highest return to capex project you will ever find. If Australia doesn't recognise its value the only result will be another great Australian resource being swallowed by a foreign, probably Indian, company.
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