Grant,
I think that you're reading a little too much into the ordering of the RBA's reasons for the december rate rise, esp. w.r.t. the relative strengths of each of the 4-5 stated reasons.
I agree that the perceived strengthening in world economic conditions would have been a major consideration (as a forward risk), but cannot accept that domestic credit conditions (associated mainly with high housing and other consumption) were not a key part of the decision.
I see limited long term harm in the rises if they do quickly moderate the domestic credit growth situation - particularly since RBA jawboning didn't seem to get the message across in a real way to people (whereas the rate increases so far seem to have, very effectively).
I expect that the high valued AUD currency situation will be a relatively short run event (moderating over the next six months or so either as expectations of US interest rate rises become progressively stronger with a continued US recovery or as the RBA again drops rates having achieved what I regard as its main policy purpose this time - pricking the housing speculation situation at a less hurtful early stage).
I agree that there will be winners and losers from the rates decisions - it invariably happens with any policy change (or lack of change). However, the rate increases have also been telegraphed by the RBA for some time - and some might say 'we were warned'.
I enjoy and appreciate your analyses
Cheers and regards
OG
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