Good grief, what an awful analysis. Pretty shameful considering...

Good grief, what an awful analysis. Pretty shameful considering the author is supposed to be an authority on this type of subject.

There is no shortage of Li - it is abundant and is found everywhere that salts form. Even assuming a very rapid update of BEVs, lithium production will run a significant surplus for at least the next thirty years:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18402-y

Just like the oil industry, Increasing demand for lithium will make more lithium deposits economically viable for extraction. In fact lithium carbonate is pretty inexpensive and there is a lot of room to grow without having any noticeable impact on BEV prices.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378775316304360

People have been predicting the world will run out of oil for over a century. Those folks couldn't imagine the advances in technology that would make so much oil accessible. And they couldn't understand how cheaply oil could be extracted when the industry grew by orders of magnitude.

from -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil

Economist and oil analyst Daniel Yergin notes that the first predictions of imminent oil peaks go back to the 1880s, when some American experts believed that exhaustion of the Pennsylvania oil fields would kill the US oil industry. Another wave of peak predictions occurred after World War I
[12]

"... the peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years."

" ... There are many well-informed geologists and engineers who believe that the peak in the production of natural petroleum in this country will be reached by 1921 and who present impressive evidence that it may come even before 1920."- David White, chief geologist, United States Geological Survey (1919)[13]

“The average middle-aged man of today will live to see the virtual exhaustion of the world’s supply of oil from wells,”- Victor C. Anderson, president of the Colorado School of Mines (1921)[14]

An important difference here is lithium can be recycled - oil cannot. Over an 8 year lifespan for a car - the average ICE driver will burn over 1,000 kg of oil. BEV driver uses 10 kg of lithium - and that battery will gain another 8 years of life as stationary storage. After which it can be recycled back into a brand new battery.

*peace*