LYC lynas rare earths limited

i have used MS for over 30 years. I had a major holding, for Me,...

  1. 8,332 Posts.
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    Yes they do have the Lamp. 7 years after next it still has not reach NEXT rates, 1.8 KT a Q, it is barely reaching original name plate. In fact the production for last 4 Qs was 5,98KT just a fraction under the Original name plate. Its technology was from Rhods.(SP) they did this design for China at the end of last century. There were updates in monitoring and control to what was being used in many other industries for many years. The processing was old when it was on the drawing board.

    I do not know where you heard. "Multi-Billion dollar "LAMP"" But its original cost was A$919M this includes Mt weld and LAMP Shortly after AL became CEO she took a one time write off decreasing its Value because someone thought it was way overvalued. It is currently on the books for A$341M. All this data is clearly shown in note B1 on PG 77 of the 2024 AR. Where did you get your numbers? They are wrong!
    If you were looking at buying a design would you use a company whose facility was suppose to be at Name plate in 2010 and had the track record below. Whose Brand new modern Facility in Texas was suppose to start testing in late 2022 and production in 2023 and still has not started construction in 2025. You may think Lynas is great. Look at this statement on page one of 2025 Finacial plan. "A $500m capital plan self-funded with the ongoing support of JARE" They have now spent A$1.7B and will likely be well over $2B when Texas is done.
    Try taking a higher view to see what serious people making $$$ decisions may see, not other dreamers on this board. I will agree the overwhelming majority on this board thinks like you do. That does not make you correct. Some research would help a lot.

    I started this chart after AL took over. NC performance is not worth looking at, too long ago and very poor. I do have data back to 2009 if you want to see it.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/7041/7041028-36641d1b85bd9458cff9a3e9c87fa120.jpg









    i have used MS for over 30 years. I had a major holding, for Me, In Lynas as early as 2010. These two things have made me keep an eye on all that. is said By MS Take a look at the track record of this analyst. How his long range projections are always lowered or taken down as dates approach.

    Here is the link to Yahoo page on 15 Lynas's Analyst. Note a few things https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LYC.AX/analysis/
    • EPS has dropped from A$0.12 to $0.07 in last 90 days
    • That the number of Analyst has dropped from 15 to 12 in last 90 days. I cannot prove but know these dropped because they did not want to show how much they were dropping estimates.
    • How average estimate is now 7 cents for 2025 but 27 cents for 2026. This was similar for 2025 a year ago.

    Take a snap shot of the 2026 earnings and revenue now and follow what happens over the next year. You will learn a lot about the value of these reports.

    He uses Robots to say this will supply the increase in demand to drive prices up. I disagree. He seems to forget That job specific Robots have been around in Quantities for over 30 years. In general, the motors in theses robots are much larger than these in hominoid robots. Take a look at any automotive factory. Take a look at Amazons and UPS warehouses. They all use many large robots. In auto it is estimated that robots have replaced 80 % of workers in last 30 years.

    Here are two articles on robots. The MIT article is one of 3 you should read all 3. They appear to be in disagreement, The MIT article looks at jobs created by robots in design, build, and service and points out these are much better jobs. The second article just looks at the 60M jobs lost on assembly lines. Even medical labs have seen a large reduction in jobs as things are analyzed entirely by robots. These will not be replaced by humanoid. Job specific is much better and cheaper.
    How many jobs do robots really replace? | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    U.S. Lost Over 60 Million Jobs—Now Robots, Tech And Artificial Intelligence Will Take Millions More


    Technology has caused jobs to change for 100s of years. Depends on what you think is important if this is good or bad. I for one do not want to go back and live like the first US settlers did in US. Or the Indians who were already here.

 
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