Some Sunday reading ..
Rare Earth Elements: The New Geopolitical Game-Changer of the 21st Century
For over a century, oil—once dubbed “black gold”—dominated global power dynamics. Nations rose and fell on its tides, waging wars and forming alliances around this precious resource. Now, in the 21st century, a different asset is reshaping the geopolitical landscape: rare earth minerals.
From the glowing screens of smartphones to the spinning turbines of wind farms; from advanced missile systems to electric vehicles, a group of 17 elements—previously relegated to the margins of geology textbooks—has surged to become the pillar of modern technology. Elements such as lithium, cobalt, neodymium, and terbium, collectively known as “rare earths,” are no longer “rare” in strategic importance. They are essential to the technology we rely on daily, yet their ubiquity masks a profound strategic vulnerability.
In June 2025, rare earths again found themselves at the center of Sino-American tensions. In early April, China halted export licenses for crucial rare earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium, triggering strong condemnation from then-U.S. President Trump. After several weeks of negotiations, China agreed to resume exports to the United States temporarily. This incident underscores an undeniable reality: China controls the rare earth industry, and the world’s major economies are heavily dependent on its supply.
China’s Dominance in the Rare Earth Industry
Globally, rare earth reserves total approximately 130 million tons, with China holding about 44 million tons—a full third of the world’s stockpile. Countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, and Russia also possess significant reserves, while India holds roughly 6.9 million tons (making up about 5% of the global total). However, having reserves does not equate to market control.
In 1993, China and the United States held roughly 38% and 33% of the global rare earth production respectively. Over the next two decades, through a focused, albeit silent, strategy, China’s share surged to over 90% by 2008 and peaked at 97% in 2011. Even as other nations attempt to revive or restart production, China continues to control the critical stages of the value chain—handling almost all processing capacity.
The Intensifying Battle for Supply Chains
Though rare earth elements are found around the world, very few countries have been able to realize their full potential in large-scale utilization. For instance, the Bayan Obo mine in Inner Mongolia stands as the world’s largest rare earth deposits, solidifying China’s leading position. Non-Chinese suppliers such as Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths have become key players, while the revival of the Mountain Pass mine in California still relies heavily on Chinese refining expertise. Meanwhile, India’s coastal reserves, along with Brazil’s, Vietnam’s, and Russia’s potential deposits, remain underdeveloped due to shortcomings in infrastructure and policy.
In the race to secure resilient supply chains, the United States, European Union, Japan, and Australia are making significant investments in rare earth projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This isn’t just an economic competition; it’s a new form of geopolitical contest. Both American and Chinese companies have already encountered each other in mineral-rich regions, emphasizing the critical nature of these raw materials.
Across the globe, measures are being taken to fortify supply chains and reduce vulnerabilities:
Without access to these vital materials, a nation cannot adequately defend its borders or mount a transition towards clean energy. The next global powerhouse will likely not be the oil giant of old, but the nation that controls scarce minerals and the technologies to process them. As climate goals accelerate and technological innovations continue, rare earths are increasingly seen as the “fuel” for the future—and potentially, the flashpoint for tomorrow’s conflicts.
(20min delay)