Interesting article, page-424

Some confusion around ... This headline contradicts that a deal has been reached???

MP Materials Jump On China Rare-Earth Curbs, Trump Tariffs
June 26 2025

Rare-earth magnet producer MP Materials (MP) jumped early Thursday amid a Wall Street Journal report that China is slow-walking licenses to American manufacturers as U.S.-China trade negotiations proceed.

The WSJ report highlighted challenges Ford Motor (F) and other U.S. producers face as their ongoing supply of rare earths remained uncertain. Though it hasn't reached a critical stage, the news explains why investors have growing conviction that the federal government will move aggressively to improve the economics of rare-earth processing in the U.S.

MP Materials Gets China LiftChina's rare-earth export controls, which threatened a widespread shutdown of auto production last month, are a powerful selling point for MP Materials.

"For years, we have warned that the global rare earth supply chain was built on a single point of failure," MP CEO Jim Litinsky said on the May 8 Q1 earnings call.

MP has methodically ramped up its capacity to produce rare earth concentrate from its Mountain Pass, Calif., mine. It turns it to NdPr metal commercial-grade magnets at its manufacturing facility in Austin, Texas. Yet, until recently, the rare-earth pricing backdrop has weighed on MP stock.
The incentive price for rare earth metals needed to stimulate investment outside China "is many multiples of today's market price," MP CFO Ryan Corbett told a May 20 forum hosted by BofA Securities.

Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, elaborated. "The prices we see in China are not market prices. They're strategically designed prices to fend off competition and to feed their downstream champions (such as EV and wind turbine makers) with cheap inputs."

That suggests the need for some combination of market-driven price increases, tariffs and subsidies to fuel the continued expansion of MP and the industry in the U.S.

On the earnings call, Litinksy said that MP is "now in active discussions with major commercial and government stakeholders who recognize the urgency of this moment and are eager to accelerate our mission."

Markets may be betting that the U.S. and China will strike a trade deal that effectively trades chips for rare earths. Nvidia (NVDA) and chip-equipment stocks like ASML (ASML) and Applied Materials (AMAT) are surging this week, leading the S&P 500 higher.

That will likely cause short-term volatility in MP stock but won't derail incoming federal support for the rare-earth sector.