Probably at least partially due to the fact that c02 forcing has become more dominant relative to solar forcing recently as the concentration has increased, which makes sense. Also, we're talking about a massively complex system here so can't expect a perfect correlation between the dependent variable and any single predictor variable.
As other studies have said:
- Kelly 1992: " even with optimized solar forcing, most of the recent warming trend is explained by greenhouse forcing".
- Laut 1998: "the solar hypothesis—instead of contradicting—appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities".
- Damon 1999 found that the sunspot-temperature correlation corresponds to an estimated 25% of global warming to 1980 and 15% to 1997.
- Benestad 2005: "There have been speculations about an association between the solar cycle length and Earth's climate, however, the solar cycle length analysis does not follow Earth's global mean surface temperature. A further comparison with the monthly sunspot number, cosmic galactic rays and 10.7 cm absolute radio flux since 1950 gives no indication of a systematic trend in the level of solar activity that can explain the most recent global warming".
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- Interesting CO2 findings from NASA.
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