they have 15% of space coming vacant in 2010
they only expect to relet about 60% of becoming vacant space
they have no idea how they will get their sep/oct 250mill refinanced
I guess they just stated what was obvious. They are honest lot, I think. I hope the best for them.
the most interesting comment was the mortgages are property by property and non-recourse; so I can see them, for sure, handing the keys back on a few buildings; they will be in full 'survival' mode by year end
also, I notice they said they stayed in good cashflow by cutting costs in the last year, but they said they cannot keep doing that
The mid year report and end of year report (end 2010) will be shockers for them. Can they survive?
They also noted any leasing was just churning of businesses. That is the only reason you sign a lease is because that leaser left a near by building. So you can guess the rents will still fall over the next two years. It is better to get something rather than nothing.
RNY is a great micronism (is that a word) of the whole US commercial real estate. The entire thing is going to take another couple of years to find a bottom.
I think the US will end up like Japan. 20 years of no growth and slow deflation. The alternative is to simply inflate, Zimbabwe style, the currency.
In the end (of these 20 years) the Joe in the street is going to be 50% worse off in living standard and the bankers have simply sucked up all the money the govt (tax money) gave them.
Interesting times for sure
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