Firstly, you chose a project that actually makes RXL look expensive based on current valuations.
let me explain.
Bibiani had completed a full feasibility & had a functioning plant. This makes the project fair superior when compared to RXL. where RXL needed a new plant.
You are implying that RXL should be valued the same as whatBibiani,let's assume around it to $130mil aud? Which is no where near the case. But let's assume they are both equal.
factor 70% based on ownership and RXL is $91mil.
It is unrealistic to then expect RXL to be valued at the full $91Mil as that value implies a full unconditional offer is on the table.
Most project trade at a discount to the TO value. around -60%. So that implies a fair value for RXL at $36mil.
& TBH this is the case with most projects & just prior to their acquisition. hence why news to TO's are always at a premium to their current valuations.
therefore the risk/reward is pretty bad. If you are comparing youanmi to bibiani, RXL should be valued at $20mil!
Your choice of comparison makes RXL LOOK EXPENSIVE
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