I really don't think it's that difficult to understand the sequence of events:
- their original guidance included some large project work - these clients put the large projects on hold because their businesses and broader industry went into a tailspin post the caps coming into play. Nothing GTK can do about it. Given GTK had already hired the people to do those projects, the lack of revenue punched through to the P&L at essentially a 100% drop-down rate - to top it off, a few of their UK energy customers went bust which forced them to take bad debt expense (which they did, above the line - most companies would've adjusted it out and called it "non recurring" or whatever)
The flat guidance for 2020 is, I think, conservative - despite project revenue cratering in 2H19, pre bad debt expense their margin was ahead of 1H19. Management clearly got burned by 2019 and didn't enjoy having to guide down multiple times, so the human reaction is to sandbag to prevent a repeat performance.
This business has badly underperformed guidance before in similar circumstances (ie due to delays in large projects) - it happened shortly after they IPO'd, and the stock cratered 20%...and then went up 300% in the ensuing three years. The company has said for years that it can experience big swings from period to period due to timing of large projects - people just forgot because everything had been going well for the prior 3 years.
I'm guessing in a few years that the Great Guidance Guide-Down Debacle of 2019 will be long forgotten.
GTK Price at posting:
$3.40 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
