I have been wondering for some time if we should get out of the fund managers sector, in case of decline of the stock market.
More and more, GQG Partners looks interesting even if there is a significant decline of the stock market (of course, to a certain extent).
Main reason : GQG is now valued for a decrease of its FUM, while the company had a good resistance so far.
1/ GQG is valued for a decrease of its FUM
GQG has now a PE of around 10 x and a yield of 9 %.
Always difficult to know what is an appropriate PE.
Probably more interesting to look in term of yield.
Even in an environment of raising interest rates, a yield of 9 % continues to be significant, in particular if it looks sustainable.
Looking at GQG, it seems to me that a yield of 9 % corresponds more or less to a stability of its FUM.
2/ A good resistance so far
During Q1 22, GQG Partners had a decrease of only 0.8 % of its FUM in AUD (+ 1.9 % in USD).
This shows its ability to quasi-stabilize its FUM in a difficult environment where MSCI global decreased by 5.7 % and there was a decrease of the USD vs AUD (large part of their funds are in USD).
So, this quasi-stability of their FUM during Q1 was due to 2 elements : the outperformance of their funds and their regular net inflows.
Net inflows represents around 1 bn USD per month. At this pace, it is able to fully offset a decline of 13 % for the stock market.
Also interesting to see that April was another test for their funds, given the weakness of the market.
Looking at the first elements we got, GQG continued to do well both in term of outperformance and net inflows.
There was also another element for GQG in April : this time, AUD weakened by 5.5 % vs USD.
Overall, GQG increased its FUM by 2.7 % in April in AUD (- 2.7 % in USD). That's a great performance compared to the market (- 8.8 % for S&P 500 during that period).
YTD (Jan-Apr 22), GQG has been able to increase its FUM (in AUD) by 1.4 %.
3/ Conclusion
My point is not to say that GQG will do well whatever the market conditions.
It is more to note that it has a large ability to offset a decrease of the stock market, thanks to several "stabilizers" : its outperformance, net inflows and the expected strength of the USD vs AUD in time of stock market weakness.
For example, it was able to slightly increase its FUM during Q1 22 (in USD), while MSCI global decreased by 5.7 %. So, the company could fully offset a decrease of around 23 % of the market (on an annualised basis).
I won't come back on the strengths of the company, largely described by several posters in HC.
I just think that these strengths are real and the ability of Rajiv Jain to outperform have been tested several times in the past, in different market conditions.
Apart from that, also good to remind that the company has a high margin, despite very competitive fees (and almost no performance fees), so they are affected than other active fund managers by the competition with passive fund managers (very low fees).
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