interesting item - locust plague , page-8

for the dumb denmans in the class....
I will explain why I thought the article interesting, you can all make your own decisions.

This is one of the reasons I thought it interesting:

If there is a huge locust plague, this forecast below, at least for Africa, and maybe for Europe, is not too likely to be too accurate. But if we still have a good season in Australia, it might be good for AWB and other related stocks.

However, nothing might come of it.

AWB is one of the many stocks that I follow and one that I currently have a position it, as might others on HC.

World wheat production to climb
NIDHI NATH SRINIVAS

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ TUESDAY, JUNE 08, 2004 12:03:39 PM ]
World wheat production in 2004 is forecast to climb after six consecutive years of decline. Recovering production throughout Europe and the Former Soviet Union, as well as another year of good harvests in North Africa and the Middle East, should result in a more than 40-million-tonnes jump in world production.


Notwithstanding this increase, consumption will also grow and remain above production, further shrinking already tight world stocks. Consumption is expected to rise this year largely due to recovering use of wheat for feed in Europe, where it is the primary feed grain, and the Former Soviet Union.

Global ending stocks are consequently forecast to continue to shrink for the fifth straight year, albeit at a slower pace, and fall to a 23-year low. However, with nearly all of this fall occurring in China, ending stocks in the rest of the world will actually be up slightly year-to-year.

World trade in 2004-05 is forecast to fall to the lowest level in nearly a decade as good production in key importing countries helps reduce overall import demand. Imports throughout Europe will drop due to better supplies, and imports in North Africa and the Middle East will remain at reduced levels compared to average years.

Even with Chinese imports expected to surge to 8 million tons, making China the largest wheat market in the world, the smaller import demand elsewhere will lower overall trade year -to-year. Exporters will face stronger competition for this smaller import demand as exportable supplies recover in Europe.

EU-25 exports are projected to grow more than 5 million tons as a record crop allows for increased domestic consumption, stock rebuilding and substantially larger exportable supplies. In the Former Soviet Union, although exports are not expected to grow much due to higher domestic feed consumption, lower import demand in many of these countries, especially Ukraine, will result in more lower-priced Russian and Kazakh wheat available for markets outside the region. Greater competition from these suppliers will likely focus on North Africa and the Middle East.

In Asia, exports from nontraditional suppliers such as India and China are expected to drop as both of these countries have drawn down stocks significantly. As much of this is wheat for feed, it will not have a major effect on US wheat exports, but may aid US corn sales to the region, as it will put a strain on feed compounders in key markets such as South Korea and Philippines. Australian exports are expected to grow 3 million tons with a forecasted second consecutive good crop.